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Economic Stability And Add New License Excavator 12 Consecutive Months Year-on-year Growth Rate Of 40%

Excavator sales continue to run high growth rate. Statistics show that July domestic excavator sales of 7656 units, up 108.9%. At this point, excavator sales year-on-year growth rate of more than 40% consecutive 12 months, refreshing history record. Market analysis, construction machinery industry began to face "supply side downward" and "demand side up" the improvement of the foundation, and formed a more obvious scissors.

High growth rate leads to better economy

According to China Construction Machinery Association Mining Machinery Branch Industry statistics, January-July this year into the statistics of 25 mainframe manufacturing enterprises, total sales of various types of mining machinery products 82725, year-on-year increase of 101.3%, compared with the whole year 17.64%.

From the data, domestic excavator sales in the first 7 months of this year are close to 84500 in 2012 and continue to record new highs since 2013. 2010, 2011, the same period excavator sales of more than 100,000 units.

All sorts of indications, excavator sales growth rebound, is the economic strength of the important indicators.

From the historical data, the last excavator sales peak, or during 2009-2011. In the previous November 2008, China's 4 trillion plan, since then the national capital investment and promote the construction of urbanization peak, economic growth is obvious.

Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. Chief economist Shen earlier also said that in highway, bridges, buildings and other projects, about 60% of the earthwork is completed by digging machinery, the beautiful "excavator Index" is the Chinese economy on a certain side of the "thermometer", meaning that the economic recovery is stronger than expected.

From the recent economic situation, excavator sales higher at the same time, it is the economic stability at the time. According to the statistics bureau, July PMI 51.40, starting from August last year, has been in the flourish line for 12 consecutive months. The high growth rate of this excavator began last August.

In fact, not only the excavator, the macroeconomic benefits of the drive, including automobiles, engineering machinery and many other areas of subdivision has entered the outbreak period.

The first commercial vehicle network earlier statistics, this July, heavy card sales 94,000, year-on-year growth of 89%, significantly exceed market expectations. January-July, the cumulative sales of 678,000 vehicles, year-on-year growth of 74%. Monthly, this year January-July, year-on-year growth rate of 125%, 147%, 53%, 52%, 51%, 60%, 89%.

Previously, the Guangdong Securities (17.150,-0.27,-1.55%) Lolipo research to the slow-soil machinery industry as an example, since 2012, the construction machinery industry has experienced "supply upward, demand downward" pattern, after a long time to go to capacity and inventory process, began to face "supply side downward" and "demand side up" the improvement of the foundation, and formed a more obvious scissors. Both provide the opportunity for the storage of equipment digestion, but also for the release of new equipment needs to manoeuvre space.

See the August all the success?

Behind the high growth in excavator sales, the market began to wait for August data to determine the accuracy of the recovery, mainly because:

On the one hand, the market has been worried about cardinal factors. Wind information previously cited market analysis, since the excavator opened high growth from last August, resulting in the relative high base of the month, so this year high growth is likely to expire in August, since then to maintain the momentum of a slightly higher year-on-year growth.

On the other hand, the decline in investment growth has also become one of the market challenge factors. Shanghai Securities Shaoli said earlier this year, due to last year's fixed assets investment in the new START Project total investment has been at a high growth rate (20%-40% interval), resulting in demand, the first half of the excavator in the rapid growth of demand. With the investment of fixed assets in this year, the total investment of the new project plan has been falling down, the excavator sales in the second half of this year are expected to be in a decreasing marginal growth state.

However, state-run Securities Tri Research Report, although the high growth rate and the low base in the same period last year, the second half of the growth rate will be a decline, but the year-round sales of high growth, rough calculation of the full-year sales in 10-12. About 50,000 units, is expected to grow at more than 40%, optimistic growth

Sky Wind Securities Shi Lunfang, Zhu Yuanjun Research newspaper also analysed, based on the 2016 low base of industry growth can continue until 2018, in the process of leading enterprises to benefit first.

It is noteworthy that, as one of the macroeconomic first indicators, the beautiful performance of excavators and the recent "new cycle" mutual confirmation.

The recent "New cycle" point of view causes market concern. Founder Securities (8.740,-0.12,-1.35%) Jenzepine analysis, we are at the third stage of the production cycle, supply the end of the clearing, corporate profits and balance sheet began to repair.

The report's view tends to be stronger in the three-quarter economy at the demand-side L-form toughness. At the same time, there will be a slowdown in the marginal demand next year, but not too deep, the volatility of the bottom. The new capacity expansion cycle may start in the second half of 2018 to 2019 years.

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